Subcontinent on a precipice

The anti terror operation by the Indian armed forces is now in a delicate phase. On the second day targets in Lahore and Sialkot have been hit and the military has said that they have neutralized air defenses and also that Pakistan has attacked more than a dozen cities along both the loc and the international border. The Pakistan sources have not claimed these attacks though. This has put the ball firmly in Pakistan’s court. It can decide to only defend, which it claims and that it has downed a few Indian jets in the process, or it may decide to retaliate where it may hit definite targets in India or it decide to escalate and make disproportionate attacks. Each of these choices has its own consequences and implications. Going by the Indian statement, Pakistan has already retaliated, but its attempts have failed. This has changed the level of deterrence between both sides. How can effective deterrence be established is a strategic and operational imperative for both. This search or titration for effective deterrence is prone to miscalculation and escalation. This incremental responses may soon get out of hand, and both sides of the border are densely populated areas. Lastly the nuclear threat remains, especially in an unequal contest. The international community has thus far steered clear from the crisis and only issued appeals for calm and restraint. Soon they may be forced to step in and it may prove to be a realignment of global forces. Such realignment increases polarization and makes global peace vulnerable. So it’s time that both countries realize that poverty and environment are the real concerns for them. The people can’t afford any escalation.