The 48 hour truce amidst the af-pak conflict, severe enough to be called more than a skirmish is welcome, but is just a move where both sides are just startled by the costs.
The Pakistan establishment which is a euphemism for the army, is in a difficult situation.
Just when it seemed to have overcome the huge financial and political crisis, that had threatened to destroy the country, over the past few years , with improving its domestic and international ratings and also claiming victory against India during operation sindoor, it is facing fresh challenges from its western border.
Ever since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul, in 2021, it has been a catch 22 situation for the Pakistan army.
On one hand its most important security dogma of strategic depth against India, seemed to be reifying, after all it had invested 25 years in nurturing the group, and on the other hand its greatest internal security threat the TTP was getting a new home.
After the 9/11 attacks, and the subsequent US ‘war on terror’, Rawalpindi was forced to dissociate from the Taliban regime, which it had nurtured, and join the US war, the conservative forces were unhappy.
After the Lal masjid incident in 2007, the TTP was formed and since then the afghan war spilled into Pakistan’s home territory. After the 2014 Peshawar school massacre, the war became mortal.
Now with the return of Taliban, the army was in a predicament. Its jehad factory had turned autophagic. The huge cache of arms and ammunition that the US military had left behind, made the ragtag Taliban militia a formidable army and it was experienced when it responded to the Pakistan military’s attack against TTP positions in afghan territory.
Reports suggest some 58 military casualties though the Pakistan army conceded 23. Pakistan retorted to its superior air power and bombed Kabul. This has shocked the battle ready Taliban.
Both sides are counting their losses and chances. After the April clash with India, Pakistan doesn’t want the western front to be active and definitely not in this magnitude.
The Taliban too doesn’t want to lose power like it did after 9/11. It wants to prove that it is a responsible political entity capable of running a country. War with Pakistan would destroy it all.
The Chinese mediation earlier in the year, hasn’t really worked. Pakistan now wants to move ahead from its policy of nurturing proxies but the djinns keep coming back.
India may enjoy schadenfreude , and court the Taliban, but must remember that its ideology is incompatible with the principles of the Indian Republic and any detente would prove disastrous.
Religious extremism has proven antithetical to modern society and civilization, the Indian establishment also needs to learn its lessons.
