The much anticipated Trump- Putin summit meet in Alaska has proven to be a non starter. It was only expected, despite the claims of President Trump.Putin has always been a non theatrical cold negotiator, who only negotiates from a position of strength. The war has prolonged beyond his calculations, but so has it been for NATO as well. Trump has realized that with China controlling much of the world goods trade, American sanctions are not that crippling anymore. The change in power equations was evident, when Trump shied away from imposing penal tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, something he has done against India. He also realizes that Europe too, is too dependent upon Russian gas, and has been buying it indirectly. The war to expand NATO , from eastern to southern Russia and Black Sea, has exposed many realities. First that Europe is no longer fighting fit, and Trump has declared it, America is no longer willing to foot Europe’s security bill. Second that Putin, unlike Europe and America, doesn’t mind accepting coffins, for his geostrategic interests. Third that OPEC would not allow the US to fix oil prices like before. And lastly, Russia’s geographical size makes it impossible to take the war to Russia. Realizing these, Trump tried to get a ceasefire agreement, but Putin doesn’t want to squander his position. He wants a peace treaty, which would mean NATO’s withdrawal from Ukraine and perhaps ceding of eastern territory of Donetsk, luhansk and Kherson. With crimea already assimilated Russian presence in the Black Sea would grow significantly. The Indian foreign policy has failed to leverage any of it though. The shedding of non alignment and joining the American camp has been disastrous.
